نشریه اقتصاد مالی
پیاپی 14 (بهار 1390)

Iran due to oil resources is component of indeveloping countries that it’s export is dependent on agricultural products and underground reserves. So starting price fluctuations in world market of these products are caused balance of payment disequilibrium. In this case on way for reducing balance of trade deficit is currency devaluation (increasing in exchange rate) because it is a reason for increasing export. The aim of this article is to analysis exchange rate pass through on the export price index in the long-run. The Johansen-Juselius Cointegration Technique is used to estimate and with using seasonal data over the period spring 1369 till winter 1385 imperical model is estimated for Iran’s economy. The results of estimate show that there is an incompelet relation in domain of taking influence export price index exchange rate changes in long-run. Exchange rate pass through coefficient on export price index is 0.16 in long-run, so according the results, pricing to market is based on local common prices (LCP) in long-run.

In the past, theories of economic growth were believed thatreal resources such as land and capital growth were the main constraints and would be ignored the role of financial markets. But new theories are emphasized on the importance of freedom of the financial sector and the importance of financial sector in the development process. Proponents of market economy are believed that flourishing competitive markets, privatization of public enterprises, free trade, attracting foreign capital and elimination government waste regulations enhance efficiency and growth will be provided. So the aim of the present study is analysis the effects of financial liberalization on economic growth. For this purpose, data 37 countries has been used that include 23 countries with low and middle incomes and 14 high-income countries in the period 2008-1980. The results are showed that long-term effect of capital market liberalization on growth in low and middle income countries is negative and in high-income countries is positive. However, the effect of capital inflows on the high and low and middle income countries is positive.

Tourism as a high profitable phenomenon, mid spread the relevancies technology, has so station in modern world that named tourism industry. This industry bears multiple significance for countries like Iran that thought out of the mono-output situation and one which in fact is the single-polarized. The purpose of this study is cognizance the effective factors on tourism and also forecasting the future of this industry. The period of study in this study is 1995 to 2008 and also simulation time is considered to 2025. For this purposes utilize the panel data and system dynamics methods. Research results show the positive relationship between the tourism and the per capita income and the heritage index. Also in this study defined four scenarios for survey the effect of changes in variables such as exchange rate, consumer price index, heritage index and per capita income on tourism. Finallythis study using the system dynamics method to forecast the future of tourism, that results show the shares of Asia and Pacific tourism industry wills growth 26 percent in 2008 to 39 percent in 2025.

Investigating annual public budgets and its effect on economic growth and income distribution alone may mislead policy makers because the main sector component of budgets are more important in such surveys. In this article we try to investigate social affair budgets contribution on economic growth and income distribution in Iran in 1375-1385. We used time series data and VAR model in order to investigate the relation between economic growth (and income distribution) with whole public budgets, public social affain budgets, literacy rate, capital stock, labor force stock. The results of Impulse Respone Function show that government social budgets have positive and meaningful effects on Iran economic growth and improvement of income distribution. Also, the results of Variance Decomposition show that government social budgets are the most important effective variable on incomes growth and income distribution. Therefore, according to positive effect of social affair budgets on economic growth and income distribution.the authorities and policy makers should pay attention to it and do not let reducing it during financial recession or economic adjustment policies.

This article has surveyed the unit effectiveness of economic variables such as gross domestic production, foreign currency rate, inflation, real portion rate, bargain value share of stock market GDP on FDI flow for 27 various countries such as Iran and in two groups of developed country and under develop within time period of 1992-2010. In this survey, foreign direct investment is the subsidiary of the level of GDP, foreign currency, real portion rate, bargain value share of stock market GDP, and value added share of industrial part GDP for 27 chosen countries such as Iran, developed country and developing. For estimate the pattern, the method of Ordinary Least square can be used. Then, in propose of choosing the stable affect and random affect pattern, it has used HASMAN TEST in Eviews 6 software.The result of HASMAN TEST is confirming the stable affect pattern. Result of this survey is indicating which GDP within ed 27 countries has positive influence in entrance of direct foreign investment which has positive coefficient and significant in statistic.In the other hand, vast economy of the countries which make the bigger GDP has positive effect on FDI. Foreign currency rate has negative & significant affect on direct foreign investment. Foreign currency rate increscent or value weakening of countries’ national money will cause the FDI decrease.Real portion rate which has made variance of nominal portion rate minus inflation rate, has negative & significant affect on direct foreign investment and share of stock market transaction on GDP and direct foreign investment with one time suspension, has positive and significant affect on direct foreign investment. Also, the results shows, in developed countries, the variants such as market share of stock is very important in absorbing the FDI and within under developed countries, GDP has positive and significant affect on FDI, but inflation and market share variant of GDP has negative and significant affect on FDI.

FOREX is one of the most important and largest financial markets in the world. This market primarily used to reduce the risk of exchange rate changes and the second place as a way to profit the difference in rates. This article has two main approaches: First to introduce and review how activity in the FOREX market, the second, most important preconditions for the presence in this market forecast exchange rate changes, the factors affecting the real exchange rate in using the ARDL method is studied. The survey results show that the variables government spending, oil revenues, capital flows and the degree of openness of the economy, including the main factors influencing the real exchange rate in Iran.

As an important economic section of high efficiency, tourism has an excellent position in the modern world called Tourism Industry. According to the Iranian tourism attractions, this industry may be considered for moving out of single-product condition and dependency on oil. Therefore, the author intends in this article to show some effective factors on demand of tourism and share of each factor. In this case, 11 tourist provinces in a period of 2005 to 2010 were studied. By linear logarithm function and its estimation in panel data method, it was determined that the traveling costs in destination such as variable of total goods and services used index (SHB) and ratio of price of hotels in that province to the family income of other provinces (NHN), are the most efficient variable in total demands for domestic tourism. In addition, coefficient of variable of total local tourism attractions (TJ) and total tourism and travel agencies (TA) is positive, showing direct relationship of number of domestic passengers and two mentioned variables in that province.

Land use planning, is a scientific approach to understanding spatial and regional capabilities in the development of spatial abilities. In the postmodern era the development has multi-dimensional basis. The interaction of Land preparation and spatial development will follow goal of geographical equity that through economic prosperity, social, cultural and political, is provided. Tourism is one of the multidimensional aspects of spatial development in a region. So in Land preparation is one of the spatial that we can survey is tourism capability in each region that with it's identify and within the framework of sustainable provided a field for spatial development. Land preparation in the field of tourism in each region study through the tourism development feasibility that by this way the capability of tourism development will be known. The research in Land preparation framework analysis the capability of tourism development and study the province of Khorasan as the case based on the Land preparation in the field of tourism.